• Business Blog
• January 8, 2025

European Car Makers Brace for Winter

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The European automotive industry is currently facing a troubling landscape, marked by significant restructuring and widespread job lossesIn a grim forecast, various prominent automakers and parts suppliers have recently laid out plans that signal a substantial reduction in workforce numbersForecasts indicate that layoffs could exceed ten thousand by 2024 alone, exposing the industry's fragility in the face of plummeting market demand, shifting economic conditions, and the pressures of technological transformation.

Major corporations are being forced to make hard decisions regarding workforce reductionsNotable players in the market, including Volkswagen, Audi, Ford, and Bosch, have outlined plans to cut more than 50,000 jobs across Europe over the next few yearsAs part of a cost-saving initiative, Volkswagen has indicated it will close at least three factories in Germany and reduce its staff by tens of thousands

Audi has proposed a 15% reduction in non-production roles, which will affect about 4,500 jobs in GermanyMeanwhile, Ford anticipates a workforce decrease by 4,000 employees primarily in Germany and the UK by the end of 2027. Additionally, parts supplier ZF Friedrichshafen plans to reduce its workforce in Germany by 11,000 to 14,000 positions by the end of 2028.

The reasons behind these significant layoffs are multifacetedOne major contributor is the elevated inflation and sluggish economic growth that have severely dented consumer purchasing power, leading to stagnant car salesThe ongoing decline in the traditional combustion vehicle market has compounded the pressure on profit marginsOn top of this, while the shift towards electric vehicles is envisioned as the path forward, the high cost of research and development, combined with fierce market competition, has made it challenging for companies to achieve profitability in this new environment

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Added to the mix are global supply chain issues and fluctuating material costs, which have kept operational expenses high.

Moreover, despite the proactive advocacy for electric vehicle adoption by various European governments, the slow pace of building charging infrastructure and a lack of consumer confidence have constrained market demandTraditional automakers find themselves in a conundrum, facing pressure to allocate resources wisely while simultaneously undergoing technological transformation.

The current plight of European car manufacturers to a large extent stems from the hurried pace of the energy transitionThe European Union has implemented stringent carbon emission regulations, with plans to ban the sale of new combustion vehicles that do not meet zero-emission standards by 2035. However, some legacy automakers have struggled to adapt their strategies in a timely manner, thereby losing ground to electric vehicle competitors like Tesla

This failure to adapt has not only resulted in increased compliance costs but has also left smaller companies grappling with the financial strain of transformation due to insufficient resources in R&D and production.

Significantly, a major strike occurred at Volkswagen's nine factories in Germany on December 2, involving over 100,000 employees who protested against management's recent proposal to cut wages by 10% and close factoriesThis strike, organized by IG Metall, the largest metalworker union in Germany, has escalated into one of the most severe labor disputes in the nation's automotive sector in recent years.

The strife was ignited by Volkswagen management's comprehensive cost-cutting plan, which they believe is necessary to enhance competitiveness in response to declining demand and competitive pressures in the European marketData indicate that car demand in Europe dropped from 16 million units in 2019 to approximately 14 million, with Volkswagen alone losing around 500,000 vehicle sales in the region

Lower production costs from factories in Eastern Europe further weakened the competitive position of Volkswagen's German operations.

IG Metall vigorously opposed the cost-cutting proposal, arguing that it is the result of mismanagement during the transition to new energy sources which has placed Volkswagen’s German factories in jeopardyThe union suggested alternative measures for cost savings, including deferring bonus payments slated for 2025 and 2026. Volkswagen management, however, outright rejected these suggestions, remaining firm on their stance to cut wages and close three factories in Germany.

Strikes occurred in multiple locations, prompting actions from various Volkswagen sites, including their headquarters in Wolfsburg, as well as facilities in Dresden, Hanover, and Salzgitter, with each participating in a two-hour “warning strike” that dayThe union made it clear that if management did not concede to demands, the strike would escalate to an indefinite walkout.

This labor unrest occurs against a backdrop of mounting profit pressures for Volkswagen

Previously, the company relied on robust profits from the Chinese market to offset operational costs in Europe; however, shifts within the Chinese market have disrupted this balanceVolkswagen is now compelled to reassess its global operational strategies and how to maintain the competitive edge of its German factories.

Facing the strike, Volkswagen representatives expressed their respect for employees' rights and asserted that the company would work to ensure basic supply needs for its customersNonetheless, employee representatives countered that management should bear greater accountabilityDaniela Cavallo, a union spokesperson, articulated during protests: “Employees should not pay the price for management’s mistakesWe hold management and shareholders co-responsible.”

In a move reflecting broader geopolitical tensions, the European Union announced in October that it would impose anti-dumping taxes of up to 35.3% on electric vehicles imported from China

While this measure aims to shield local manufacturers from competition with Chinese automakers, it has not garnered the widespread support anticipated within EU member countriesMany nations and businesses within the EU have expressed concerns that such a policy might negatively impact the adoption of electric vehicles across the European market.

A potential issue with this tariff strategy is that it could adversely affect European manufacturers producing electric vehicles in ChinaGiants like BMW and Volvo have electric models available in Europe, though many of their vehicles are manufactured in China, with some companies contemplating shifting more production to that regionThe EU’s tariff policy would not only increase costs for these companies in the European market but could also disrupt their global supply chain integration.

In contrast, Chinese automakers have displayed heightened adaptability

For instance, companies like BYD have made clear their intentions to establish production bases in Europe to circumvent tariff barriersBy localizing production, these companies can not only mitigate tariff burdens but also enhance their connection with local consumers, thereby strengthening brand loyalty.

According to the EU's objectives, by 2030, at least 40% of new cars sold should be zero-emission, eventually reaching 100% by 2035. However, these high tariffs could inflate electric vehicle prices, suppressing consumer interest in new energy models and potentially diminishing acceptance of European brands in this category, thereby impacting overall market growth.

This "protectionist" approach may not prove sustainable in the long run.

As the global automotive industry accelerates its transition towards electrification, policy barriers may inadvertently hinder the development of Europe’s automotive sector